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Patience is needed for Brazil to come good again

^{Michael Hasenstab}

Dr. Michael Hasenstab is executive vice-president, portfolio manager and chief investment officer of Templeton Global Macro

    The Olympic Games in Rio drew global interest to Brazil, but the country and the rest of South America has been in sharp focus for investors all year. They have flocked to the region as part of a broader migration into emerging market debt, following record low valuations and the hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment. While investors have been presented with a rarely seen buying opportunity in emerging markets like South America, it is a mistake to regard these countries as a homogenous group.

    That leaves the challenge of working out which are the most attractive opportunities – some of our best known investments were not obvious choices.

    We have devised a formula to help us evaluate the fundamental strength of different emerging market countries. It scores a country’s current and projected strength on five factors: how well it has learnt the lessons from past crises; the quality of its policy mix; the structural reform being undertaken to boost productivity; the level of domestic demand; and its ability to resist external shocks. The aim is to pick nations that are fundamentally strong but, for one reason or another, are out of favour with investors. It can take time for the market to catch up to reality. But if you are a long-term investor – and we are certainly in that camp – you have the luxury of being able to wait.

    Brazil, for example, is known as a vulnerable market due to the commodities downturn, the ongoing corruption crisis and ensuing political turmoil, but our work suggests to us that it is poised for a potentially significant rebound in the long term. Its current score is low, but its projected future score tells a different story.

    We believe the country has learnt the lessons from the most recent crisis, which brought home the importance of having a sustainable fiscal policy. It has already adopted a flexible exchange rate, has strong foreign exchange reserves and has limited short-term debt. This is also reflected in the country’s improving resilience to external shocks, with a reliance on commodities, at 60 per cent of exports, being the largest remaining negative.

    It is perhaps no surprise, given Brazil’s deep recession and political instability, that there is much work required in terms of improving policy mix, making structural reforms and boosting domestic demand. However, there are signs things are being turned around, with monetary policy already being tightened aggressively to bring inflation expectations back under control, and the previously excessive levels of governmentsubsidised lending being cut. Once political stability returns, the government will be empowered to do even more.

    Work on structural reform should accelerate too, as Brazil’s middle class has made it clear it wants greater transparency and an economic policy

framework that can both boost living standards and improve the environment for businesses.

(www.ft.com. 01.09.2016. Adaptado)

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Life and the Movies

  Joey Potter looked at her friend Dawson Leery and she smiled sadly.

  “Life isn’t like a movie, Dawson,” she said. “We can’t write happy endings to all our relationships.”

  Joey was a pretty girl with long brown hair. Both Joey and Dawson were nearly sixteen years old. The two teenagers had problems. All teenagers have the same problems - life, love, school work, and parents. It isn’t easy to become an adult.

  Dawson loved movies. He had always loved movies. He took film classes in school. He made short movies himself. Dawson wanted to be a film director. His favorite director was Steven Spielberg. Dawson spent a lot of his free time filming with his video camera. He loved watching videos of great movies from the past. Most evenings, he watched movies with Joey.

  “These days, Dawson always wants us to behave like people in movies,” Joey thought. And life in the little seaside town of Capeside wasn’t like the movies.

  Joey looked at the handsome, blond boy who was sitting next to her. She thought about the years of their long friendship. They were best friends...

ANDERS, C. J. Retold by CORNISH, F. H. Dawson’s Creek. Shifting into overdrive. Oxford, Macmillan, 2005.

Why do we buy into the 'cult' of overwork?

By Bryan Lufkin, 9th May 2021

Although many of us associate overly ambitious workaholism with the 1980s and the finance industry, the tendency to devote ourselves to work and glamourize long-hours culture remains as pervasive as ever. In fact, it is expanding into more sectors and professions, in slightly different packaging. Overwork isn't a phenomenon exclusive to Silicon Valley or Wall Street. People work long hours all over the world, for many different reasons

In Japan, a culture of overwork can be traced back to the 1950s, when the government pushed hard for the country to be rebuilt quickly after World War Two. In Arab League countries, burnout is high among medical professionals, possibly because its 22 members are developing nations with overburdened healthcare systems, studies suggest. Reasons for overwork also depend on industry. Some of the earliest researchers on burnout in the 1970s asserted that many people in jobs geared toward helping others, like employees in clinics or crisis-intervention centers, tended to work long hours that led to emotional and physical exhaustion – a trend which is shown up in the pandemic, too. But millions of us overwork because somehow, we think it’s exciting – a status symbol that puts us on the path to success, whether we define that by wealth or an Instagram post that makes it seem like we're living a dream life with a dream job. Romanticization of work seems to be an especially common practice among "knowledge workers" in the middle and upper classes. In 2014, the New Yorker called this devotion to overwork "a cult".

According to Anat Lechner, clinical associate professor of management at New York University. "We glorify the lifestyle, and the lifestyle is: you breathe something, you sleep with something, you wake up and work on it all day long, then you go to sleep. Again, and again and again."

Adapted from: Home - BBC Worklife.

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Mysterious delivery: 50 old TVs appear on neighborhood’s porches

Associated Press Published 9:16 p.m. ET Aug. 13, 2019 | Updated 9:40 p.m. ET Aug. 13, 2019

RICHMOND, Va. – Police in Virginia say more than 50 television sets _____________ mysteriously placed on front porches in a neighborhood outside Richmond. Henrico County police Lt. Matt Pecka said residents found older model televisions outside their front doors Sunday morning.

He told the Richmond Times-Dispatch that video from one doorbell camera showed a person wearing TVshaped headgear while dropping off a TV set. Police believe that more than one person is responsible. A similar incident occurred in a nearby neighborhood last year. It’s unclear if the incident is a crime. Pecka said that dropping off the televisions on front porches is “at most” illegal dumping.

Most of the TVs will be recycled. But a couple residents indicated they would keep their televisions for now.

From: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/08/13/50- tvs-mysteriously-delivered-richmond-virginia-areaneighborhood/2004769001/